THE MARKET IS COOLING. THE PRESSURE ISN’T GONE.

August 25, 2026

The truckload market continued to ease from its summer highs last week, but underneath that short-term cooling, the fundamentals are telling a different story.

Spot rates declined across dry van, reefer and flatbed. Yet all three remain roughly 34%–38% higher than a year ago based on the latest DAT figures we are tracking.

That distinction matters.

This does not look like a return to the excess-capacity environment of the last freight downturn. Instead, demand has cooled while available truck capacity remains considerably tighter.

Add rising diesel prices, continued regulatory pressure on capacity, strengthening business activity, major infrastructure investment and hurricane season, and there are several potential catalysts that could quickly change today's relatively calm market.

This Week at a Glance

📉 Freight Demand: Cooling from summer highs

🚚 Truck Capacity: Improving short term / structurally tighter

💰 Spot Rates: Declining week over week

📈 Year-over-Year Rates: Still substantially elevated - roughly 34%–38%

⛽ Diesel: $5.652/gallon - up 19.8¢ this week

🏭 Industrial Activity: Strengthening

🏗️ Construction Demand: Strong - data centers & infrastructure remain key drivers

🔧 Regulatory Pressure: Elevated - Brake Safety Week & continued capacity enforcement

🔮 35-Day Outlook: Stable to modestly softer

⚠️ Longer-Term Risk: Capacity remains the bigger concern

🌪️ Wild Card: Hurricane season - a major storm could quickly disrupt an already tighter truck/load balance

Rates Are Down - But Don’t Miss the Bigger Story

The latest weekly DAT data showed another pullback in spot rates.

Dry Van: ↓ approximately 1.3%

Reefer: ↓ approximately 0.4%

Flatbed: ↓ approximately 2.5%

But compared with the same period last year:

Dry Van: ↑ 38.4%

Reefer: ↑ 33.7%

Flatbed: ↑ 35.7%

We intentionally focus on the percentage movement rather than publishing national average rates per mile because individual lanes, regions and equipment requirements can behave very differently.

DAT's own market reporting supports the larger theme: rates remain unusually elevated relative to historical seasonal levels even after the recent pullback. DAT also reported recently that July truckload volumes declined across van, reefer and flatbed even as contract van and reefer pricing increased — another indication of the growing influence of available capacity on pricing.

The important takeaway:

Freight doesn't necessarily have to boom for rates to rise when there are fewer trucks competing for it.

That's why we're viewing the current decline more as a cooling period than evidence that the capacity problem has disappeared.

Diesel Just Added Another 19.8¢

Fuel deserves particular attention this week.

The national average on-highway diesel price reached:

⛽ $5.652 per gallon on August 24

That's up from:

$5.454 on August 17

$5.257 on August 10

So in just two weeks:

$5.652 − $5.257 = +$0.395

Diesel has increased 39.5¢ per gallon in two weeks.

And this week's increase alone was another 19.8¢ per gallon.

For carriers running hundreds or thousands of gallons each week, movements of this size matter.

Even when fuel surcharges recover some of the increase, rapidly rising diesel adds pressure throughout the transportation system.

Capacity Remains the Story We’re Watching

The biggest question in today's freight market isn't simply:

How much freight is there?

Increasingly, it is:

How many qualified trucks are available to move it?

Regulatory enforcement continues to play a role.

FMCSA has continued removing noncompliant electronic logging devices from its approved list. Five additional ELDs were revoked on August 6, and as of August 23 drivers still using the previously revoked TRUCKSTAFF ELD can be placed out of service.

That's important because these aren't temporary changes in freight demand.

They affect the supply side of the equation.

When capacity is plentiful, the market can absorb those losses relatively easily.

When capacity is already tight, each additional reduction matters more.

Brake Safety Week Adds Another Variable

CVSA's annual Brake Safety Week is underway August 23–29.

Roadside inspectors are conducting increased commercial-vehicle inspections with particular attention on braking systems.

We don't expect one inspection event by itself to change the national freight market.

But enforcement events can temporarily affect available capacity - and they are more meaningful when the underlying truck supply is already tighter.

Combined with increased ELD enforcement and other regulatory changes, it is another piece of the capacity puzzle we're watching.

Industrial America Is Showing Strength

One of this week's most encouraging economic signals came from the broader U.S. economy.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI increased to 56.0 in August, up from 54.5 in July.

That was the strongest rate of U.S. business activity growth since April 2022. S&P Global said its survey data currently points toward third-quarter annualized economic growth approaching 3%, compared with 1.5% during the second quarter.

Why does that matter to transportation?

Because ultimately:

Economic activity creates freight.

We aren't calling for a sudden freight boom.

But if economic activity continues strengthening while truck capacity remains constrained, the supply-demand equation becomes increasingly important.

Data Centers Continue to Move the Needle

Another theme we're watching closely is the extraordinary amount of investment going into data centers and large infrastructure projects.

Deere recently increased the lower end of its 2026 earnings outlook while reporting significant strength in its construction business.

Its construction and forestry division saw quarterly sales increase 18% year over year, and orders for construction equipment are reportedly largely filled for the remainder of 2026, with some backlog extending into fiscal 2027.

Data centers, electric-grid projects, manufacturing facilities and other large-scale construction projects require enormous amounts of material and equipment.

That translates into freight.

And unlike traditional consumer freight, much of this activity is being driven by long-term capital investment rather than what consumers happen to purchase this week.

Two Economies May Be Emerging

This is one of the most interesting developments we're watching.

The industrial economy appears to be strengthening.

The consumer economy remains resilient but increasingly price-sensitive.

Consumers continue spending, but retailers report that shoppers are making tradeoffs, searching for value and becoming more cautious about large purchases.

Meanwhile, infrastructure, manufacturing, electrical-grid investment and data-center construction continue moving forward.

For transportation providers and shippers, understanding where freight is being created may become just as important as watching national freight volumes.

Agriculture May Be Approaching a Bottom

Agriculture remains one of the softer areas of the economy.

Deere continues to expect U.S. and Canadian agricultural equipment sales to decline approximately 15%–20% during 2026.

But the company also believes 2026 could represent the bottom of the current agricultural equipment cycle, potentially setting up a measured recovery during 2027.

That doesn't mean agricultural freight suddenly accelerates tomorrow.

But it gives us another potential source of demand to monitor as we look beyond the remainder of 2026.

🌪️ The Hurricane Wild Card

This may be one of the most important risks over the next several weeks.

Hurricane season happens every year.

But the freight market underneath it isn't the same every year.

A major hurricane striking the Gulf Coast or Southeast can quickly generate enormous transportation requirements:

• Emergency supplies

• Food and bottled water

• Generators

• Electrical equipment

• Building materials

• Fuel

• Cleanup equipment

• Reconstruction materials

At the same time, normal freight routes can be disrupted, facilities can close and trucks can be repositioned toward disaster-response freight.

Now imagine two significant storms occurring relatively close together.

The important question isn't whether we can predict a hurricane.

We can't.

The question is whether today's trucking network has the same amount of excess capacity available to absorb one.

Based on the capacity indicators we're following, that cushion appears smaller.

A significant hurricane could therefore tighten certain regional markets very quickly, and multiple major storms could potentially create effects extending well beyond the areas directly impacted.

This is a risk - not a forecast - but it's one shippers should have on their radar.

What the Smart Money Is Watching

There was also an interesting development outside traditional freight-market data.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust disclosed a roughly $180 million investment in FedEx Freight, acquiring approximately 1.19 million shares following FedEx Freight's June 1 spinoff.

We don't interpret one institutional investment as proof that freight rates are going higher.

But the timing is interesting.

FedEx Freight is a massive component of North America's LTL transportation infrastructure, and the investment comes as the freight industry appears to be emerging from a prolonged downturn with considerably tighter capacity.

Sometimes capital markets provide another perspective on where sophisticated investors believe long-term value may be developing.

We'll be watching this one.

By the Numbers

A few numbers that put the scale of American trucking into perspective:

🚛 14+ MILLION

Large trucks and buses are registered to operate on America's roadways, according to FMCSA.

🛣️ 331 BILLION

Approximate miles traveled annually by large trucks in the United States in the latest FMCSA Pocket Guide data.

That's roughly:

331.3 billion ÷ 365 = 908 million miles every day.

📦 11.27 BILLION TONS

Freight moved by trucks in 2024, according to ATA industry data - approximately 72.7% of U.S. domestic freight tonnage.

⛽ ~100 MILLION GALLONS A DAY

Approximate diesel consumption by U.S. trucks based on ATA's most recently confirmed truck-specific annual consumption figure.

And here's why that number caught our attention this week.

At roughly 100 million gallons per day:

100,000,000 gallons × $0.198 = $19.8 million

A 19.8¢ increase represents roughly $19.8 million in additional cost for every day's equivalent fuel consumption, purely as a scale illustration and before accounting for actual current consumption, purchasing differences or fuel-surcharge recovery.

A few cents at the pump becomes a very big number when multiplied across American trucking.

💡 Did You Know?

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✓ Dry Van

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✓ Straight Truck

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✓ Heavy Haul

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What We’re Watching Next

Heading toward September, these are the indicators at the top of our list:

🚚 Capacity - Do regulatory enforcement and carrier attrition continue reducing available trucks?

📦 Demand - Does stronger business activity begin translating into additional freight?

⛽ Diesel - Does the recent surge continue or begin to stabilize?

🏗️ Industrial Activity - Do data centers, manufacturing, infrastructure and energy investment continue supporting freight demand?

🌪️ Weather - Does hurricane season produce a meaningful regional capacity disruption?

💰 Rates - Does the current seasonal pullback continue, or does tighter capacity establish another floor?

The Freight Signal

For now, the market is giving shippers some relief.

Rates have backed away from their summer highs, and near-term freight demand has cooled.

But underneath that relief are several signals we don't think should be ignored:

Capacity is tighter.

Diesel is rising.

Business activity is strengthening.

Infrastructure spending remains strong.

Regulatory enforcement continues.

And hurricane season remains a major unknown.

The biggest risk may not be that freight demand suddenly explodes.

It may be that it doesn't take much additional freight to tighten the market anymore.

The market is cooling. The pressure isn't gone.

Make sure to subscribe to The Freight Signal for our weekly look at the U.S. truckload market - including rates, capacity, demand, equipment trends and the factors we're watching that could affect transportation costs.

Coach Logistics, Inc.

Since 1999 - Old school, dependable, relentless follow-through.

Sources: DAT Freight & Analytics / DAT iQ; U.S. Energy Information Administration; Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration; Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance; American Trucking Associations; S&P Global Market Intelligence; Deere & Co.; Transport Topics/Bloomberg; Manufacturing Dive; TheStreet.