THE PULLBACK IS REAL. SO IS THE RECOVERY.

August 20, 2026

The freight market continues to send two different signals.

In the short term, transportation pricing and load activity are cooling from the summer peak. But underneath that correction, available truck capacity remains considerably tighter than it was a year ago.

That distinction matters. We do not view the recent decline in spot-market pricing as a return to the soft freight environment of 2024–2025. The data supplied for this report instead points toward a market that is normalizing after a rapid increase while remaining structurally tighter year over year.

This Week at a Glance

📉 Freight Demand: Cooling

🚚 Truck Capacity: Improving short term / structurally tighter

💰 Spot Rates: Declining from summer highs

📈 Year-over-Year Rates: Still substantially elevated

⛽ Diesel: $5.454/gallon - up 19.7¢ this week

🔮 35-Day Outlook: Stable to modestly softer

⚠️ Longer-Term Risk: Capacity remains the bigger concern

Spot Market: Five Weeks of Cooling

The latest Truckstop/FTR data shows that spot-market activity continued to decline during the week ending August 14.

Total spot loads fell 2.8% week over week, marking the fifth consecutive weekly decline and bringing activity to its second-lowest level of 2026.

At the same time, available truck postings increased 2.6%, pushing the Market Demand Index - the ratio of loads to trucks - to its lowest level since the third week of the year.

Rates declined across all three major equipment types:

Dry Van: approximately -2.6% WoW

Reefer: approximately -0.8% WoW

Flatbed: approximately -2.3% WoW

Flatbed experienced its ninth consecutive weekly rate decline, and FTR characterized the latest weekly decline as the largest for a comparable week in its data going back to at least 2008.

Despite that recent weakness, the year-over-year picture remains strong:

Dry Van: approximately +35% YoY

Reefer: approximately +35% YoY

Flatbed: more than +41% YoY

Coach's Take

The market is cooling, but it is not weak.

The decline we're seeing appears to be a correction from the rapid rate increases experienced earlier this summer rather than evidence that the freight market has returned to last year's conditions.

DAT Data Confirms the Pullback

DAT is showing essentially the same pattern.

Since the week of July 5, national spot linehaul rates have declined approximately:

Dry Van: -9%

Reefer: -7%

Flatbed: -7%

Load postings have also been declining. DAT reported that total load postings fell approximately 23% over the previous five weeks.

The important point is that the market remains considerably stronger than it was one year ago.

This combination - declining near-term demand but significantly higher year-over-year pricing - is one of the clearest indications that reduced truck capacity is playing an important role in the current freight cycle.

35-Day Freight Forecast

The DAT 35-day RateCast forecasts provide an important forward-looking indicator.

Dry Van

DAT's forecast points toward relative stability with some additional modest softening through mid-September.

Reefer

Refrigerated pricing is also expected to remain relatively stable, with only modest movement anticipated during the forecast period.

Flatbed

Flatbed is expected to continue experiencing some downward pressure, although the projected market remains substantially stronger than year-ago conditions.

Coach's Take

The 35-day forecast supports what we're seeing in the weekly data:

The rapid summer increase appears to have peaked, but the market is finding a considerably higher floor than it had in 2025.

That is an important distinction for transportation planning.

Capacity Remains the Bigger Story

Several sources continue to indicate that the current freight recovery is being driven more by shrinking transportation capacity than rapidly increasing freight demand.

C.H. Robinson's July route-guide data supports that conclusion.

Overall North American route-guide depth improved slightly from June, but remained considerably higher than a year earlier.

Long-haul shipments continue to show the greatest pressure, with loads traveling more than 600 miles requiring carriers to move further into backup transportation options than they did during July 2025.

Industry executives quoted in recent reports are also describing increasing difficulty recruiting qualified drivers.

A recent driver recruiting and retention study reported that 26% of surveyed carriers increased driver pay during 2026, while several large carriers have reinstated or increased compensation incentives.

Why This Matters

When freight demand eventually strengthens, the industry may not have the ability to add trucks and drivers as quickly as it did following previous freight downturns.

That could make the next tightening cycle longer and potentially more volatile than previous recoveries.

Equipment Market Supports the Capacity Story

July Class 8 truck orders declined 31% from June, but remained approximately 75% higher than July 2025.

Year-to-date Class 8 orders were reported to be approximately 120% above the comparable 2025 period.

Used truck activity, however, softened during July.

Same-dealer used Class 8 sales declined 2.9% month over month, while preliminary average retail pricing declined 4.4%.

Taken together, the equipment data suggests carriers are interested in replacing and positioning equipment for improving freight conditions, but widespread fleet expansion remains constrained.

Intermodal Continues Taking Freight From Trucks

Another trend worth watching is the continued movement of freight toward rail.

Recent industry data indicates intermodal volumes remain approximately 6% above last year, while railroads have experienced one of their strongest truck-to-rail conversion periods in years.

This is helping absorb some freight that otherwise would move by truck.

Intermodal therefore remains one of the forces preventing truckload capacity from becoming even tighter.

Consumer Demand Remains a Risk

The freight recovery is occurring against a relatively uncertain consumer backdrop.

July retail sales declined 0.6%, while consumer sentiment weakened again in August.

Only 8% of consumers surveyed by the University of Michigan reportedly expect their incomes to grow faster than inflation this year.

This matters because consumer spending ultimately drives a significant portion of truckload freight.

A sustained slowdown in consumer spending could limit freight-volume growth even while reduced carrier capacity keeps transportation pricing elevated.

Diesel Moves Sharply Higher

The U.S. average on-highway diesel price reported for August 17 was:

$5.454 per gallon

That represents an increase of:

+19.7¢ per gallon WoW

and approximately:

+46.9% YoY

Fuel therefore remains an important source of transportation cost pressure even while base freight-market pricing is currently easing.

Looking Ahead: Late August Through September

Based on the market information reviewed this week, we expect:

Dry Van: 🟡 Stable to slightly softer

Reefer: 🟡 Stable with continued regional volatility

Flatbed: 🟡 Continued normalization after a very strong spring and early summer

Capacity: 🔴 Still tighter than normal

Fuel: 🔴 Elevated and volatile

Overall Market: 🟡 Cooling from summer highs but remaining significantly stronger than 2025

One additional factor we will be watching closely is hurricane activity. Historical C.H. Robinson data indicates that major storms can create substantial short-term regional transportation disruptions, particularly for inbound freight immediately following landfall.

Bottom Line

The freight market appears to be entering a late-summer stabilization period.

Rates and load volumes have declined for several consecutive weeks, and DAT's 35-day forecast suggests that the market may continue to stabilize into September.

However, the underlying capacity picture remains considerably tighter than it was one year ago.

Regulatory enforcement, carrier attrition, driver availability and rising driver compensation all suggest that rebuilding transportation capacity could take time.

For shippers, the message is straightforward:

The immediate pressure has eased, but the capacity problem has not disappeared.

If freight demand strengthens later this year or into 2027, a smaller available carrier base could cause pricing pressure to return relatively quickly.

Coach Logistics will continue monitoring national and regional capacity, spot-market trends, fuel prices, DAT's 35-day forecasts and other leading indicators to help our customers anticipate transportation-market changes before they affect their freight.

Sources: DAT Freight & Analytics, Truckstop/FTR, C.H. Robinson, ACT Research, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Triumph Market Insights, Transport Topics, Trucking Dive, Commercial Carrier Journal, and other economic and industry reporting reviewed for this week's update.